Gold Target

To build a price forecast for Gold we consider the view point of gold as a store of value and compare it to the other common store of value the US dollar.

This comparision is made by looking at the monetary base of the average US citizen since 1920 and comparing it to the price of gold. The monetary base M2 is calculated as total balances maintained plus money in circluation, when divided but he population of the US, essentially it is a measure of how much money the average american has to make investments with. Well this may not be an apples to apples comparision with the price of gold, since some might consider the comparision of Gold to USD as a currency to be more accurate, it is an important perspective to understand the price relationship of a widely held store of value(the USD) with a much less widely held store of value(gold).

Throughout history the price of gold has hovered between 16% and 100% of the monerary base. The price peaking to 100% of monetary base per capita during the 1970s flight to safety, right before Paul Volcker of the US Fed kicked interest rates 15% to make the USD attractive.

Today (6/11/2020) we sit at a monetary base per capita of about $16,000. While the price of gold per ounce is about $1,700. ( about 11% of monetary supply per capita)

Gold’s Price vs US dollar M1, M2, M3 - image 5

While flights of capital are extremely rare events that require times of extreme uncertainty, the last one happening in 1970 decade long crash in the US stock market, it is still worth noting that the flight of capital thesis is the extreme bull case for the gold market and can result in the price of gold skyrocketting to 10 times its current value just to reach 70-100% of the monetary base per capita value it has reached in 1930 and 1990s.

In addition we maintain that the price for Gold has a stable floor. This is partly due the current non-certain political and financial climate and due to the relative underperformance (in value not price) of other asset classes, an underperformance that begs money managers to look at gold as a potential asset class.

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