The cycle of life based on a the Strauss-Howe generational theory that influences the Millenial Gold Prophecy is based on upon a belief that there is no single right way of living and that each lifetime is a simulation, that takes a cyclical path, of different generations exploring the ways of life together in one lifetime.
For example: Neither Liberal Capitalism nor Social Welfarism are perfect systems, but in each of our lifetimes we will get to witness the human powers of individualism and collectivism exert the opposite pressure as human society begins to move closer toward either one of these systems.
Much of the work in this section is derived from and is an interpretation of William Strauss and Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning which provides a comprehensive documentation on a cyclical perspective of history.
“The Fourth Turning” is not a scientific documentation, it is littered with annecdotal evidence and the authors numerous postulations. I am not inclined to believe in unscientific truths, however, the act of studying history to prepare for the future in inherently unscientific. Each person can research and present his or her own, seemingly valid and believeable, interpratation of history just because there are billions of stories to chose from. And making your point, no matter what that point is, can become surprisingly easy if you look at the right subsection of population to make your point, a kind of data fitting if you will. If you want to show that the 90s was a devastating decade, you can find quotes from multiple, selective prominent voices of that decade to corroborrate your point of view.
But no matter the unscientificality, I find reason to believe some core tenents mentioned in the book. I find it reasonable to believe that once in each of our lifetime there comes a period with a series of events, lets define this period as a ‘crisis’, that brings society together. A period with a great event, a crystallizing moment, that everyone from your 18yr old cousin to your 80 year old grandma will experience and come out of it by all being on the same page. A series of events that coaleses the all generatoins toward a singular social, communal purpose. A crisis that no living generation has experienced , the last such period seems to be 1930s-1940s with World War 2 and the Great Depression. So in essence this theory suggests that we are in this crisis period and due a major event in the next 5 years (not my timeline).
This period, i believe, will consists of events that illuminates the growing misunderstanding among different generations of what common values, morals, social and economic structures ought to be. The crisis, is not be thought of as a bad event, but a series of events occurring once a lifetime that brings us together toward the rebuilding of the social life that we believe is best for all.
I am reminded of this in 2020 by the generational disparity in behaviors and activites I see around us. In America, the older generations and the younger generations are at odds and can’t seem to have a common understanding, especially about the purpose and validity of social movements that are fighting for equality. The millenial generation is not satisfied with the “new normal” of life during this pandemic, the generation wants more, they want to change the normal, redefine it so that it’s beneficial to all and not the few. The crisis, I believe, is that crystallizing momentus series of events that brings all generations together toward a common understanding.
The exact timing of this moment is unknown and impossible to predict. The Millenial Gold investing prophecy is designed not as much to predict the exact events of the future, but to prepare for them by taking the appropriate measures.
To shed some light on the the theory behind this I have included below is good synopsis I found in the Amazon book review section.
This book builds on the theory that history is cyclical, repeating after four ‘turns,’ each lasting 20-25 years. The first turn is the high, a period of relief after a crisis has ended. The second turning is an awakening, when people start to get back to reality after the high. The third turning is an unraveling, in which people are unhappy with the way things were in the previous two turnings and are now becoming pessimistic about the future. Finally, the fourth turning is a crisis; some unexpected major event that will involve everyone and completely change the way people think from before the crisis occurred to after it ends. Then the cycle begins again with a new high.
Each turning is led by a generational archetype, also cyclical. The high is led by an Artist generation. The awakening by a prophet generation. The unraveling by a nomad generation. And last, the crisis by a hero generation. The artists of the high are coming to adulthood after a crisis has ended and enjoy their adult years in the best times. As the prophets enter adulthood, they begin to see a more realistic world with problems to come. The nomads enter adulthood in a time when attitudes are beginning to change for the worst and optimism is fading. And then a major crisis occurs, which the hero generation must solve and the cycle is ended.An Amazon book review
I encourage all the readers to pick up a copy and delve into it (with a liitle be of skepticism ofcourse) . For the puposes of the Millenial Investing Prophecy, we focus on the potential economic events during the crisis and what the implications are for the millenial investor.
- Economic Destress,
- Public debt in default
- Entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy
- Mounting poverty and unemployment
- Trade wars
- Collapsing financial markets
While some events are already underway ( tradewars, and the entitlements not as strong as they should be), some of the above events may never happen, but from the perspective of the millenial investor we focus on the one potential problem of importance that would arise from prolonged economic distress.
A Great Devaluation: ” a severe drop in the market price of most financial assets and real assets.. a free-falling price in a market with no buyers”
The book defines the crisis period as starting from 2005 to lasting about 2025. These timelines are rough estimates at best but it does indeed mesh well with the other cycles we disucss in the Millenial Prophecy. And the investing philosophy discussed in the Millenial prophecy is not time specific, but meant to last atleast the entire period of the crisis and maybe a few years beyond. As with the other cycles discssed in Millenial Gold, they all are coming to a head at the same time, we are in the final stages of all these cycles, the period may last a year, five years, or even ten. However, we do not discount the powers of the greatest and most powerful financial operator of our time, the US Federal Reserve. You will notice that our investment philosophy does not fight the FED but indeed plays along with it. (See FOMO) but also prepares for the economic distress we prophesize.